FUNDAMENTAL NEWS ANALYSIS
Wednesday December 9, 2009

3:00pm NZ RBNZ Rate Decision 2.50%(E) 2.50%(P) 0.25%(S) 50M
7:30pm AU Employment Change 5.3K(E) 24.5K(P) 30K(S) 50M

E = Expected
P = Previous
S = Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

NEWS TRADING (Namson)
Wednesday December 9, 2009

[3:00pm NY Time]

RBNZ Rate Decision BUY 2.75% NZD/USD

RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of
2.50% once again during today’s rate decision, as unanimously agreed
by all economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg. As a matter of
fact, there seems to be no fundamental reason supporting a rate hike
for NZD in the near future, as the current inflationary target for
NZD remains below the magical 2.0% level until perhaps 2011…

Concerns over the independence of the RBNZ has not benefitted the
currency at all, as New Zealand’s opposition Labour party implied
over recent publicity stunt. If the Labor party wins the 2011
elections, as analyzed by WSJ, we could see possible rate cuts in
the future rate decisions as the focus will shift from maintaining
inflation target to stimulate growth…

Therefore, the plan for tomorrow will be to wait for a surprise rate
hike and get ready to jump in the market on a LONG NZD/USD trade… If
we do not get that surprise rate decision, depending on the possible
consolidation that we might see from USD over yesterday’s risk
aversion driven moves, NZD/USD might be at a level where we could
take a possible reversal based on “BUY on Rumor SELL on News”…
however, I’d wait for RBNZ Bollard’s statement first before jumping
into a trade.

[7:30pm NY Time]

AU Employment Change BUY 40K SELL -25K AUD/USD

Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today
as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for
Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and
possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence
over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and
inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual
release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking
to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for
AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.

The safe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K.
Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 45 pips of
movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time,
which is more than enough for us to predict market reaction.

One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment
Rate, which is expected at 5.9%. If we do not get a conflict with
the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

DEFINITION

“Measures the change in number of employed people during the
previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s
currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health
because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor
conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”

WHY TRADE NEWS

Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are what determine the long term and short term trends of the market. Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is important to understand that market does not move just because a technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in the mid to long term.

Happy Trading

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS ANALYSIS

Monday November 23, 2009

8:30am CA Core Retail Sales 0.4%(E) 0.5%(P) 0.6%(S) 40M
10:00am US Existing Home 5.71M(E) 5.57M(P) 400K(S) 50M

E = Expected
P = Previous
S = Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

NEWS TRADING (Namson)
1. Monday November 23, 2009 (8:30am NY Time) CA

CA Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.5%

Our focus will be on Retail Sales Core, which is a measurement of
the activities at the retail level of the nation, excluding
volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of
Retail Sales headline number. A higher Retail sales number means
better economy, thus better for its currency.

Our surprise factor will be 0.6% on the Headline number. If our
surprise factor is hit, we can expect the market to move 50 pips
within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 82%.

2. Monday November 23, 2009 (8:30am NY Time) US

US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.71M Previous 5.57M

Our focus will be on the Existing Home Sales numbers, which
measures the amount of existing home sold during the months. A
higher number means better economy, since home purchases usually
brings more sales in the retail sector, service sector, and even in
the finance sector.

Our surprise factor will be 0.40 Million or 400K. If the number
comes out higher, we’ll BUY USD/JPY. If the number comes out
lower we’ll SELL USD/JPY.

Historically, if our S. Factor is hit, there is a 70% of chance the
market will move at least 35~40 pips within the hour.

WHY TRADE NEWS

Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are what determine the long term and short term trends of the market. Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is important to understand that market does not move just because a technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in the mid to long term.

Happy Trading

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS ANALYSIS

Friday October 23, 2009

4:30am UK GDP q/q               0.2%(E)    -0.6%(P)   0.2%(S)    50M
10:00am US Existing Home       5.37M(E)    5.10M(P)   0.4M(S)    50M

E = Expected
P = Previous
S = Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

NEWS TRADING (Namson)

1. Friday October 23, 2009 (4:30am NY time) UK

UK Prelim GDP        Forecast 0.2%      Previous -0.6%

We are looking for a -0.3%/+0.2% deviation on the expected 0.2%.
Therefore if we get a -0.1% on the prelim GDP q/q, it would seem to
be GBP negative; however, if we get a +0.4% surprise  release, then
we would see demand for GBP going through the roof.

Since this is the first release of the GDP, we should see the most
deviation from analysts consensus; with the ever dooming outlook for
UK’s economy, market participants may take this release and start
selling Sterling ahead of time.

2. Friday October 23, 2009 (4:30am NY time) UK

US Existing Home Sales        Forecast 5.37M       Previous 5.10M

Our focus will be on the Existing Home Sales numbers, which
measures the amount of existing home sold during the months.  A
higher number means better economy, since home purchases usually
brings more sales in the retail sector, service sector, and even in
the finance sector.

Our surprise factor will be 0.40 Million or 400K.  If the number
comes out higher, we’ll BUY USD/JPY.  If the number comes out
lower we’ll SELL USD/JPY.

Historically, if our S. Factor is hit, there is a 70% of chance the
market will move at least 35~40 pips within the hour.

WHY TRADE NEWS

Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are what determine the long term and short term trends of the market. Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is important to understand that market does not move just because a technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in the mid to long term.

Happy Trading